Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.321758 29.139809 32.349891 36.328670 41.203451 47.087857 54.904317
2025-02-16 22.496927 26.129191 30.639460 36.838546 45.475800 57.700314 77.723151
2025-02-23 19.671331 23.597663 28.774677 36.460063 48.346267 67.780788 107.557574
2025-03-02 17.817314 21.918588 27.591841 36.578612 51.854189 80.722843 157.872976
2025-03-09 16.311121 20.446559 26.379811 36.276226 54.497736 93.925865 237.040224
2025-03-16 15.094733 19.203675 25.273398 35.838903 56.696782 108.076728 379.203260
2025-03-23 14.112353 18.175932 24.327888 35.440174 58.811922 124.314263 701.167483
2025-03-30 13.322123 17.345106 23.570427 35.202391 61.193960 144.600271 1921.393157
2025-04-06 12.528607 16.434213 22.570610 34.315355 61.756208 159.933449 12212.448204
2025-04-13 12.285413 16.343412 22.906740 36.072498 69.777984 225.122666 NaN
2025-04-20 11.735635 15.721402 22.262348 35.704311 71.862288 267.215007 NaN
2025-04-27 11.331815 15.301055 21.924037 35.923208 75.903554 345.134212 NaN
2025-05-04 10.977300 14.941788 21.670211 36.316458 80.968699 482.244000 NaN
2025-05-11 10.617228 14.548850 21.317620 36.428181 85.276062 691.510087 NaN
2025-05-18 10.209598 14.051270 20.727254 35.882097 86.884549 920.672082 NaN
2025-05-25 9.904285 13.707483 20.396853 35.918535 91.081911 1564.447373 NaN
2025-06-01 9.583466 13.318831 19.948560 35.590079 93.613817 2816.026468 NaN
2025-06-08 9.275684 12.936349 19.483329 35.150930 95.503947 6400.115231 NaN
2025-06-15 8.995209 12.587096 19.058130 34.758007 97.537071 46514.734651 NaN
2025-06-22 8.750264 12.287726 18.710417 34.524749 100.428738 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.460682 11.897906 18.158099 33.664610 99.397620 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.427807 11.956172 18.508586 35.364579 115.382134 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.212545 11.680529 18.157537 35.008107 117.892918 NaN NaN